What's Brewing in NH?

A look at some key factors shaping the nation's first primary
By Jonas Oransky,  Newser Staff
Posted Jan 4, 2008 10:42 PM CST
What's Brewing in NH?
Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., waves to supporters in front of the State House after filing her declaration of candidacy papers to have her name on the ballot for the New Hampshire presidential primary in Concord, N.H., Friday, Nov. 2, 2007.(AP Photo/Jim Cole)   (Associated Press)

With the Iowa caucuses behind us, the New Republic pivots to New Hampshire. The second state to vote will do so Tuesday. What’s in play:

  • Independents. They make up 40% of the electorate and can vote for either party. Barack Obama and John McCain tend to poll well in this group.
  • Youth. In 2004, New Hampshire had massive youth turnout. Obama's been turning out young voters, but Hillary Clinton scores well with them.

  • Organization. Bill Clinton’s legacy is strong, but so is Obama’s team. Across the aisle, Mitt Romney dominates.
  • Endorsements. McCain generally rules the Republican side; no clear leader among Democrats.
  • Odds and ends. Rudy Giuliani has flown the coop for Florida, boosting McCain. And Obama’s support has gradually risen for 2 months.
(More Hillary Clinton stories.)

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