fivethirtyeight.com

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2022 a Great Year for Those Who Dislike Political Polls

FiveThirtyEight's forecasters find the lack of reliable information 'disconcerting'

(Newser) - There’s been much ado lately about the dire state of polling —including a general lack of confidence among the public, pundits, and pollsters themselves that polls can be trusted at all. For those who simply detest polls and wish they would all go away, the current state of...

Election Feature That 'Triggered' Dems Is Gone

America can say goodbye to 'the Needle'

(Newser) - The one thing most likely to conjure nightmares of the 2016 election night for opponents of President Trump is the Needle, the AP reports. A graphic on the New York Times ' website, the Needle measured in real time the probability of victory for Trump or Hillary Clinton as votes...

A 50-50 Senate Split Is as Good a Bet as Any: Forecast

For now, Democrats have slight edge in race for control

(Newser) - Democrats have a slight edge at the moment in their effort to take control of the Senate from Republicans, but many outcomes—including a tie—remain possible. That's the upshot from FiveThirtyEight , which kicked off its Senate forecast Friday. The most likely result from the November elections is a...

2020 Paradox: Biden Trends Down in Polls, but Odds Go Up

538: No single candidate has been able to grab momentum yet, good news for former VP

(Newser) - Now that the dust has settled on Iowa and New Hampshire, a flurry of new polls suggests that the news for Joe Biden isn't as bleak as some think, according to an analysis at FiveThirtyEight . The reason? "They're not showing that any candidate has grabbed a ton...

New Analysis Sees GOP With Safe Senate Margin
Democratic Surge Isn't
Translating to Senate
analysis
Sep 13, 2018 10:40 AM CDT

Democratic Surge Isn't Translating to Senate

FiveThirtyEight sees Republicans with strong chance of retaining control

(Newser) - The latest analysis from FiveThirtyEight.com about how the midterms will affect the Senate is good news for Republicans. The forecast gives the GOP a 67% chance of retaining control. Despite an expected strong performance by Democrats in House elections—one that could easily result in their party taking over...

Those Fortune Cookie 'Lucky Numbers'? They're Not Unlucky

FiveThirtyEight's Walt Hickey analyzed 1,000-plus cookies and made some surprising finds

(Newser) - Imagine you're so obsessed with fortune cookies, and the destinies they claim to foretell, that you order more than 1,000 of them to "unlock their mysteries." That's exactly what data journalist Walt Hickey did for FiveThirtyEight.com , picking through the prognostications (676 unique ones among...

Things Are Getting a Little Heated Over Election Forecasts

FiveThirtyEight editor Nate Silver goes on Twitter rant against Huffington Post

(Newser) - Nate Silver just unloaded on the Huffington Post after HuffPo writer Ryan Grim accused Silver of skewing polls to favor Donald Trump. HuffPo is currently predicting an almost certain victory for Hillary Clinton—two days before the election, it's calling a 98.3% chance for a Clinton victory. Silver'...

Think Trump Can't Win? Think Again
Think Trump Can't
Win? Think Again
OPINION
Nov 3, 2016 1:03 AM CDT

Think Trump Can't Win? Think Again

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver lays out the scenarios—and Trump's 'no longer really a long shot'

(Newser) - A national poll showed Donald Trump slightly ahead of Hillary Clinton on Tuesday, though, as Nate Silver points out at FiveThirtyEight , cherry-picking polls isn't necessarily indicative of an overall trend: Per the FiveThirtyEight model that analyzed a whole slew of surveys, Clinton appears to still be in the lead...

Hillary's Chances of Winning, per Nate Silver: 79%

Though he concedes 'there's a lot of football left to be played'

(Newser) - If you're looking for odds on what's going to happen in Election 2016, you can ask a Las Vegas bookie or Nate Silver. And according to what the FiveThirtyEight.com numbers whiz told George Stephanopoulos on Wednesday's Good Morning America , Hillary Clinton has an almost 80% chance...

Meet the Guy With Surprising Poll Numbers Against Clinton, Trump

Libertarian Gary Johnson nabbed 10% in 2 recent matchups

(Newser) - There's a guy who's "having a good day" and emerging with surprising poll numbers against Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, but he's someone FiveThirtyEight says is easy to confuse with "that plumber who fixed your running toilet last month or your spouse's weird friend...

Iowa Paper to Trump: Get Out, 'Feckless Blowhard'

'Des Moines Register' says real estate mogul has 'polluted' our political process

(Newser) - The Des Moines Register, the publication Politico calls "Iowa's most influential newspaper" doesn't think Donald Trump should be in the race, period, and that he should "pull the plug on his bloviating side show." An editorial published last night says Trump's concentration on his...

Stat Team's New Goal: Find Best Burrito in US

Nate Silver and crew are on the case

(Newser) - Thanks to his work in sports and politics, Nate Silver has become something of a rock-star statistician. Now, he's applying his number-crunching skills to a new project: food. Specifically, burritos. Members of his team at fivethirtyeight.com are working to determine the best burrito in the United States, and...

Stats Whiz Nate Silver Moving to ESPN

He'll likely be an Olbermann contributor

(Newser) - Nate Silver, celebrity political statistician and former baseball analyst, has just thrown the New York Times a curveball: He's departing his longtime home at the paper for a gig at ESPN. Nate Silver's contract at the Times, where he soared to fame for his election predictions, is due...

Hurricane Irene: And the Cost to NYC Will Be...?

A 'bank shot' striking NYC would cost around $35B: Nate Silver

(Newser) - If Hurricane Irene rolls into New York City—the nation's most densely populated area—it could threaten millions of lives, but also cost tens of billions of dollars and "tangibly increase the chance of a recession," Nate Silver writes on the New York Times' FiveThirtyEight blog. "...

Sorry, HuffPo Bloggers, You're Not Worth Anything

Stats guru Nate Silver does the math on HuffPo's bloggers

(Newser) - Huffington Post bloggers should stop whining about their lack of pay , even after the online site was bought by AOL for $315 million—they're just not worth it, writes stats king Nate Silver at the New York Times . Silver crunched the numbers and estimates that the median blog post is...

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