Most Hormuz Ship Traffic Is Still Tied to Iran

88% of ships through the strait last week were linked to Tehran's 'shadow fleet'
Posted Apr 1, 2026 11:39 AM CDT
Most Hormuz Ship Traffic Is Still Tied to Iran
Cargo ships sail in the Arabian Gulf toward the Strait of Hormuz in United Arab Emirates, Thursday, March 19, 2026.   (AP Photo)

President Trump says Iran handed him a "present" in the form of letting eight oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, but shipping data tells a more complicated story. Since March 1, as the US and Israel wage a joint campaign against Iran, roughly 71% of ships moving through the critical chokepoint have some connection to Tehran—through ownership, Iranian ports, or the so-called shadow fleet that carries its oil, CBS News reports, citing data from Lloyd's List Intelligence. Over the past week, those shadow fleet vessels made up 88% of all transits, up by 5% from the prior week. Only 11 oil tankers passed in either direction during that time, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center.

Chinese ships accounted for about 10% of passages, with several vessels owned by China's COSCO initially turned back by Iranian forces before being allowed through. Analysts say Iran is effectively running Larak Island, in the middle of the strait, as a "toll booth" for passing traffic. Meanwhile, Trump's claim that Iran was letting Pakistan-flagged tankers sail as a gift, and Islamabad's own statement that two such ships a day would be allowed through, are not reflected in tracking data, which show no increase in Pakistan-flagged vessels. Iran maintains the waterway is closed only to ships tied to the US and Israel.

But even if the Strait were to reopen shortly, by no means would that signal smooth sailing anytime soon, reports Al Jazeera. "The short answer is that it would take months to get shipping supply chains back to normal because of the backlog," says Svein Ringbakken, managing director of the Norwegian Shipowners' Mutual War Risks Association. "Production lines have had to be stopped for many products because of a lack of storage capacity. Add to this the damage to both production facilities and port infrastructure." (Trump has weighed ending the war without the Strait reopening.)

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