President Trump reportedly is weighing a limited deployment of ground troops to Iran, with the installation of a postwar government a potential goal. But US intelligence analysts have warned that even a broad military offensive is unlikely to dislodge Iran's ruling system, according to a classified assessment described to the Washington Post. The National Intelligence Council report, completed about a week before the US and Israel began their strikes on Feb. 28, concludes that Iran's clerical and security institutions are structured to survive the loss of top leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, three people familiar with the findings said.
The document examines possible outcomes of both limited strikes focused on senior figures and more extensive attacks on government and military infrastructure. In each case, the report says, Iran's leadership would turn to established succession mechanisms aimed at preserving continuity of rule. The likelihood that Iran's fractured opposition could take over was deemed unlikely, per the Post. "There's no other force within Iran that can confront the remaining power that the regime has," said Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution. The NIC report, according to those familiar with it, does not view the Iranian system's grip on power as fragile. Outside experts said there is little evidence so far of large-scale unrest or serious fractures within Iran's security apparatus.
One expert who has studied air power for three decades said airstrikes alone aren't likely to remove Iran's government, either, per CBS News. "The fact of the matter is, for over a century, states have been trying to topple regimes with air power alone and—I'm choosing my words carefully— it has never worked," said Robert Pape, a University of Chicago professor. The White House did not say whether Trump has been briefed on the intelligence assessment.
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