It Looks Like Homicides Are Way, Way Down in the US

If you had to guess, would you say the US homicide count went up or down in 2025? Preliminary data suggests the answer is down—way, way down. In fact, the US is poised to record the steepest single-year drop in US homicides since FBI record-keeping began in 1960, crime analyst Jeff Asher tells ABC News. Using preliminary data from 550 law enforcement agencies, Asher estimates killings will be down about 20% nationwide. The FBI's official number will come in Q2, but even if it clocks in closer to 16% or 17%, Asher says it will still mark the largest one-year decline on the books. Standout details:

• A positive trend: The plunge continues a three-year slide: FBI data showed homicides falling 6% in 2022, 13% in 2023, and 15% in 2024.
• America's big cities: Detroit, Philadelphia, Baltimore, New Orleans, and San Francisco are all on pace for their fewest homicides in decades, says Asher. The Chicago Tribune reports 2025's 411 homicides in the city amount to 160 fewer than in 2024. But the numbers aren't uniformly down: The Wisconsin State Journal reports Milwaukee saw 141 homicides this year, up from last year's 138.
• Shooting deaths: The Trace cites the Gun Violence Archive's count of 14,520 shooting deaths for 2025, a number that includes "murders, accidental shootings, and homicides deemed legally justified." That's the lowest total since 2015.
• Shooting injuries, and context: The Trace adds that shooting injuries were down about 18% for the year, to 26,101. But despite the decreases, "gun violence remains endemic," it observes. "At least 40,000 people were shot in 2025—more than 110 people a day across the country. And that doesn't include gun suicides, which have been increasing."
• 'Across-the-board drops': Beyond homicides, Asher tells ABC that aggravated assaults are down 8%, while vehicle thefts have dropped 23%. FBI data running from September 2024 to August of this year shows violent crime is down 9%, with property crime falling 12%.