What Trump's Win Could Mean for Ukraine

In mid-October, Donald Trump made his thoughts on Russia's invasion of Ukraine clear: Volodymyr Zelensky "should never have let that war start." More fully, he said: "I think Zelensky is one of the greatest salesmen I've ever seen. Every time he comes in we give him $100 billion. Who else got that kind of money in history? There's never been. And that doesn't mean I don't want to help him, because I feel very badly for those people. But he should never have let that war start. That war is a loser." So what does Trump's return to the presidency mean for Ukraine? Some early takes:

• At the New York Times, Andrew E. Kramer recalls another comment of Trump's: that he could bring the war to an end in a day, though he didn't say how. "Ukrainians now face an all-but-certain American policy shift in the midst of a war that is turning against them," writes Kramer. "Mr. Trump's pledge to end the war in a day has raised concerns in Kyiv that he would press a peace settlement on unfavorable terms to Ukraine."

• At the Wall Street Journal, James Marson and Elizabeth Findell write something similar: "Many Ukrainians are concerned that Trump might weaken Kyiv's hand by cutting critical military and financial support or seeking a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin that could cede territory and influence to Moscow. Putin has repeatedly said he is only interested in a peace deal that would disarm Ukraine and prevent it from joining NATO."
• On the NATO front, University of Birmingham international security professor Stefan Wolff writes this for the Conversation: "It is also likely that Trump would accept demands by the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, to prevent a future Ukrainian NATO membership. Given Trump's well-known animosity to NATO, this would also be an important pressure on Kyiv's European allies. Trump could, once again, threaten to abandon the alliance in order to get Europeans to sign up to a deal with Putin over Ukraine."
• At the BBC, Tom Bateman zooms out, looking at the fate of the 32-member NATO in general: "Trump has long been a (skeptic) of the alliance, accusing Europe of free-riding on America's promise of protection. Whether he would actually withdraw the US from NATO, which would signal the most significant shift in transatlantic defense relations in nearly a century, remains a matter of debate. Some of his allies suggest his hard line is just a negotiating tactic to get members to meet the alliance's defense spending guidelines. But the reality is NATO leaders will be seriously worried about what his victory means for the alliance's future and how its deterrent effect is perceived by hostile leaders."

(More Russia-Ukraine war stories.)