Your Guide to the 7 Swing States

All 50 states vote on Tuesday, but most eyes will be on just seven of them: the swing states that will most likely determine the outcome of the race. Here's the lay of the land, per NBC News, Axios, and USA Today, along with the time the last polls close in the state (in EST):

• Arizona, 9pm: Recent polling has Donald Trump ahead by 2 to 4 points, at or close to the margin of error. The state narrowly went for Joe Biden in 2020, 49.4% to 49.1%, but Trump took the state in 2016. A key county to watch: Maricopa, where more than half of the state's residents live.
• Georgia, 7pm: A New York Times/Siena College poll gives Kamala Harris a 1-point edge, while an Emerson College/the Hill poll has Trump on top by 1 point; all are within the margin of error. Biden won the state by 0.2 points in 2020; Trump took it in 2016 by a hefty 5.1-point margin. A key county to watch: Gwinnett and Cobb; Harris will likely need to take the Atlanta suburbs by a double-digit margin to take the state.
• Michigan, 9pm: Recent polling has Harris ahead by a hair—2 points or less, and within the margin of error. Biden won the state by nearly 3 points in 2020, but Trump won the state 47.6% to 47.4% in 2016. A key county to watch: Muskegon, where Democratic margins have continued to shrink.

• Nevada: Recent polling has Harris up by 3 points in one case, but essentially tied with Trump in another and, again, within the margin of error. Biden and Hillary Clinton each won the state by a little more than two points. A key county to watch: Washoe, which Clinton won by 1.3 points and Biden by 4.5 points; if Harris can keep the numbers going in an upward direction, it could balance out Clark County's results.
• North Carolina, 7:30pm: A New York Times/Siena College poll shows Harris up by two points; an Emerson College/the Hill poll shows Trump up by one point, with all results being within the margin of error. Trump won the state by 1.4 points in 2020 and by 3.7 points in 2016. A key county to watch: Cabarrus, where Trump's margin went from 20 points in 2016 to 9 in 2020; if Trump takes it by 5 points or less, that bodes well for Harris state-wide.
• Pennsylvania, 8pm: Recent polling is neck-and-neck here, with Harris ahead in one instance and Trump in another, but by 1 point or less and within the margin of error. Biden won the state by about a point in 2020; Trump won it by less than a point in 2016. A key county to watch: Bucks, where non-college-educated white voters make up roughly half the electorate; Biden won by 4 points, and if Harris loses, that could say something about her resonance with working-class white voters.
• Wisconsin, 9pm: Recent polling gives Harris the edge here, if only slightly, and within the margin of error. Biden won by less than a point in 2020, as did Trump in 2016. A key county to watch: Ozaukee, a Republican stronghold that Trump won by 19 points in 2016 and 12 points in 2020; the direction that number goes this time could be telling.

(More Election 2024 stories.)