Races to Watch as GOP Tries to Flip the Senate

Heading into Tuesday, Democrats control the Senate by the slimmest of margins at 51-49. Republicans, however, have a strong chance—somewhere around 70%—of retaking control after Election Day, reports the Hill. A look:

• Overall: A total of 34 Senate races are on the ballot, but control of the chamber will likely come down to nine competitive races, according to a New York Times analysis that draws on the Cook Political Report. The nine races are in Arizona and Nevada, which lean Democratic; Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, all considered toss-ups; and Montana, Nebraska, and Texas, which lean Republican.

• Slam dunk: Not included among the competitive races is West Virginia, where GOP Gov. Jim Justice is all but assured of winning the seat being vacated by Joe Manchin, a Democrat-turned-independent, reports NPR. Justice is favored over Democrat Glenn Elliott, the mayor of Wheeling.
• Five GOP flips? After West Virginia, the Hill's forecast lists the five likeliest GOP flips: Montana (Democratic Sen. Jon Tester vs. Republican Tim Sheehy), Ohio (Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown vs. Republican Bernie Moreno), Wisconsin (Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin vs. Republican Eric Hovde), Pennsylvania (Democratic Sen. Bob Casey vs. Republican David McCormick, and Michigan (Democrat Elissa Slotkin vs. Republican Mike Rogers are vying for the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow.)
• Democratic hopes: CNN, meanwhile, notes that Democrats have at least a shot at ousting GOP Sen. Ted Cruz in Texas, who is up against Colin Allred. The outlet also sees Nebraska as particularly vulnerable to a GOP loss. There, GOP Sen. Deb Fischer hopes to fend off a challenge from Dan Osborne, running as an independent.

(More Election 2024 stories.)