The race is so tight, including in battleground states, that it's possible either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris could win a squeaker or win decisively. But in assessing the most likely outcomes, the Washington Post notes that another plausible, if unlikely, outcome is that the two end up in a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. The newspaper lays out what it sees as the two likeliest tie-producing scenarios:
- One route: Harris wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin but loses the other battleground states along with Nebraska's 2nd district. (Nebraska is not winner take all, and Harris is favored to win the large district.)
- A second: Trump wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and either Georgia or North Carolina, but loses the other swing states, along with Nebraska's 2nd district.
- The odds: An analysis at ABC News offers other scenarios and puts the overall odds of a tie at 1-in-300.
What then? The new House would decide the next president by picking among the top three vote-getters, per NBC News. But it would not by a typical House vote: Instead, each state delegation gets a single vote, as spelled out in the 12th Amendment. It's never happened in the modern era, and Forbes thinks it's likely—but not certain—that Trump would prevail because the GOP is expected to control the majority of state delegations after Election Day. The vice president, meanwhile, would be selected by the new Senate. (More Election 2024 stories.)
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