Weird Reality of 2024: Both Sides Confident of Victory

Well, somebody's wrong. The coin-toss nature of the 2024 election is demonstrated in two competing narratives in major news outlets on Tuesday.

• For Trump: Axios reports that Donald Trump allies in the world of MAGA "appear supremely confident" that he will win re-election. The piece includes a tweeted quote from Split Ticket elections analyst Lakshya Jain: "The Republicans are projecting an image of a landslide and are hyped on early voting numbers in a way I have never seen before." A source in the Trump campaign says internal polls show Trump up—though within the margin of error—in all seven battleground states. "They are right to project confidence for that reason," the source says, while warning that "arrogance is how mistakes are made."

• For Harris: The New York Times reports that campaign aides and allies of Kamala Harris "are growing cautiously optimistic" that she will win. The gist is that they believe Harris' late push to depict Trump as a fascist is resonating with moderates, even moderate Republicans. And that, combined with strong support from female voters and a robust get-out-the-vote push in battleground states, will add up to victory.
• Reality: In an op-ed last week, poll analyst Nate Silver pointed out that because the race is too close to call in battleground states, it's plausible one candidate might win them all and thus easily triumph overall—but impossible to say which candidate that will be. However, Silver's "gut" is that Trump will prevail.

(More Election 2024 stories.)