The self-proclaimed "world's largest prediction market" is going big on a Donald Trump win this election cycle, based on what the Wall Street Journal calls a "mystery $30 million wave of pro-Trump bets" that have proliferated in recent days. The paper reports that at the start of this month, bettors on the crypto-based, Peter Thiel-funded Polymarket had the former president and Vice President Kamala Harris in a dead heat, in terms of their respective chances of winning the 2024 election. As of Thursday, that had shifted significantly in Trump's favor, with a 62% chance of winning to Harris' 38% (Forbes explains what betting market numbers mean).
- MAGA excitement: The news has fired up Trump world, with even Elon Musk gushing about the Polymarket arc. "Trump now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line," he wrote on X on Oct. 6, though his site's own Community Notes pointed out on his tweet that there's "no evidence" betting markets are more accurate than polling, and that other betting markets have placed Harris ahead. (The Journal notes that "prediction markets have a mixed record of forecasting election results.")