More Americans are looking for a new job and expecting to lose the one they have, according to the New York Federal Reserve's July consumer poll, released Monday. The survey, which has been polling roughly 1,000 Americans about work every four months since 2014, found 28.4% of respondents were looking for a job in July, up from 19.4% a year ago. That's the highest rate since March 2014, per NBC News. Meanwhile, the share of people who expect to lose their jobs in the next four months climbed to 4.4% from 3.9% a year ago—a new survey record, Bloomberg reports.
"It's not like people should be panicked—this is not like 2008, or COVID—but, given an ordinary person's balance of risks, it probably is a little higher," Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, a labor research group, tells NBC. "The vibes have gotten worse." On the bright side, the share of consumers who expect to receive a job offer in the short term is up from a year ago, layoffs remain low, the rate of job openings is above pre-pandemic highs at 4.9%, and the percentage of people aged 25 to 54 who are employed remains at an all-time high of 80.9%.
Still, there are signs that the US economic outlook is worsening beyond the rising unemployment rate, per NBC. The share of transitioning employers is at a record high for the survey at 7.1%, up from 5.3% last July, while the share of people who had a job four months ago and are still with the same employer is at a record low 88%, down from 91.4% a year ago. This "increased churn" in the labor market suggests workers are "increasingly dissatisfied with their wages and benefits," per Bloomberg. Wage expectations remain high at more than $81,000—or $94,500 for men and $66,400 for women. (More labor market stories.)
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