With a new round of ceasefire talks set to begin in Qatar, American officials believe the Israeli military has hit the limit of what it can achieve in Gaza. Officials tell the New York Times that the group has been significantly weakened and is no longer capable of carrying out an attack on the scale of the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. But for Hamas, the goal is survival and "the Israelis may never achieve the total annihilation" they seek, says former CIA official Ralph Goff. Officials say that one of Israel's main goals, the return of around 115 remaining hostages—alive and dead—can only happen through negotiations.
The Times notes that Israel has done more damage to Hamas than the US predicted at the start of the war, with Israeli forces able to move through Gaza freely, supply routes from Egypt blocked, and many senior Hamas leaders dead. But much of the group's tunnel network under Gaza is intact, and current and former Israeli officials say there is more that the military can achieve. Yaakov Amidor, a retired major general who served as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's national security adviser, tells the Times that if "Israel evacuates its forces now, within a year, Hamas will be strong again."
Amidor says Israel should fight on in central and southern Gaza for several months longer before transitioning to "intelligence-based strikes" to weaken Hamas for another year. Only then, he says, should another party take charge of the administration of Gaza. Negotiators from the US, Qatar, and Egypt are meeting an Israeli delegation for ceasefire talks in Qatar on Thursday but it's not clear whether Hamas officials will join the talks, the AP reports. Israel and Hamas have accused each other of adding more demands to a ceasefire agreement that involves the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israel and hostages held by Hamas, along with the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. (More Israel-Hamas war stories.)
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