First came the debate. Then came the "dramatic photos of a bloodied yet unbowed" Donald Trump after he'd been shot, writes Bill Scher at Washington Monthly. Add them up, and the conventional wisdom in both parties now seems to be that Trump is a shoo-in to win re-election in November. To which Scher writes, not so fast. "It is trite but true to note that a lot can happen over the next three months," he writes. "We can't be clairvoyant, but optimism is warranted." Scher is in the camp who believes Kamala Harris should replace President Biden as the nominee, but he sees hope even if that doesn't happen.
Some of the reasons he cites: Biden has slipped but not "cratered" in the polls, the economy is humming, unemployment is low, Israel and Hamas may agree to a ceasefire, the border crackdown is working, and, maybe most important, the Fed might cut rates. "Yes, we are facing an unusual set of X-factors that could render the lessons of history inoperative," writes Schur. "But defeatism guarantees defeat. The Democrats may need to fight more of an uphill battle than necessary, but uphill battles can still be won." (Read his full column.)
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