The world population will grow from the current 8.2 billion to 10.8 billion by the 2080s—but no further, according to a new UN report. Though it notes population growth is being fueled by urbanization, large-scale migration, and more people living to reproductive age, it also explains more than half of countries have fallen below the replacement level fertility rate of 2.1 live births per average woman—"the level required for a population to maintain a constant size over the long term without migration," according to a press release. Almost a fifth of all countries—China, South Korea, Italy, and Spain among them—have "ultra-low" fertility with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman.
"In some countries, the birth rate is now even lower than previously anticipated, and we are also seeing slightly faster declines in some high-fertility regions," says Li Junhua, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs. Given these factors, the global population is projected to drop from 10.8 million in 2080 to 10.2 billion by 2100. That 2100 figure is now 6% lower than anticipated a decade ago. For Junhua, it's "a hopeful sign" that "could mean reduced environmental pressures from human impacts due to lower aggregate consumption."
For 63 countries—including China, Germany, Russia, and Japan—peak population has already occurred. About 25% of people live in one of those countries, per USA Today. Another 48 countries—including Iran, Turkey, Brazil, and Vietnam—are projected to reach peak population between 2025 and 2054, according to the report. The US is among a group of 126 countries whose populations are "expected to increase through 2054 and, potentially, to peak in the second half of the century or later," per the release. In this group, nine countries—including Niger, Somalia, and Angola—are expected to see very rapid growth, with populations doubling between 2024 and 2054. (More world population stories.)
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