Trump Has 6-Point Lead in National Poll

A new national poll by CNN has Donald Trump six points ahead of President Biden when the two are placed in a hypothetical head-to-head contest, with the support of 49% of registered voters compared to Biden's 43%. Those numbers have held basically steady since CNN's last national poll in January, which had Trump at 49% and Biden at 45%. However, a new CBS News poll shows that in three crucial states, they're about even. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are among "the handful of states that decided presidential elections" in recent years, CBS notes, and in all three of them, Trump and Biden are separated by just one to two points, with Biden ahead in Michigan (51% to 49%) and Trump ahead in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (50% to 49% in both states). More from the polls:

• In CNN's poll, when third-party candidates are introduced into the hypothetical contest, Trump still holds the lead with 42% to Biden's 33%. In addition, 17% of respondents say they have a negative view of both Biden and Trump, and if forced to choose, 43% would go with Trump, 31% say Biden, and 25% say they aren't sure, or would skip voting or choose an alternative candidate.
• In CBS' poll, adding Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to the hypothetical matchup left the net gap between Trump and Biden the same in Michigan.
• In CNN's poll, 55% say Trump's presidency was a success compared to 44% who say it was a failure, and 61% say Biden's presidency so far has been a failure compared to 39% who say it's been a success.
• In CNN's poll, 70% consider economic conditions in the US to be poor, and about 41% of those say a change in political leadership would change their views on the economy more than actual economic changes such as a lower rate of inflation, a sustained stock market rise, or a change in their own finances.
• CBS notes that in 2020, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania rated state economies poorly, the incumbent (then Trump) trailed in the polls, and Biden ended up winning all three states. Similarly, the new poll finds that just 38% of voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania and 42% in Wisconsin say the state economy is good, while much larger percentages (61% to 62%) say it was good during Trump's presidency.

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