El Nino to Bow to La Nina. Here's What to Expect

A warmer-than-average winter across the northern US and a wetter-than-average winter across the South are signs of the current El Nino global climate pattern—one so strong it's been dubbed "Super El Nino," per CNN. But it's now past its peak, easing as it makes way for its opposite, La Nina, in a transition that will have major consequences for weather in the US, potentially increasing Atlantic hurricane activity and worsening western drought. In the Pacific Ocean, trade winds usually blow west along the equator, whisking warm water from South America toward Asia. During El Nino, trade winds weaken or reverse, allowing water to move from east to west, boosting surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific.

But during La Nina, trade winds are stronger than normal, so more warm water is pushed east and more cold water from the depths of the ocean rises to the surface. This results in cooler-than-average conditions, now predicted to occur as early as this summer, according to a La Nina watch issued Tuesday by the Climate Prediction Center. Forecasters found El Nino wind patterns declined in January, along with temperatures in the eastern and east-central Pacific, per the Washington Post. The CPC now describes a 79% chance of neutral conditions from April to June, a 55% chance of La Nina conditions from June to August, and a 77% chance of La Nina from September to November, per Axios.

La Ninas follow strong El Ninos about 60% of the time and "often produce the opposite weather patterns as El Nino, including a more active Atlantic hurricane season," per CNN. We may also see the consequences in "wetter-than-normal weather on the western side of the Pacific, as well as in southern Alaska, the northwestern United States, and the northern Plains" and "dry conditions for Southern California and the Southwest," per the Post. As La Nina also tends to temporarily suppress global temperatures, it could keep 2024 from surpassing 2023 as the hottest year on record. If temperatures continue to climb, however, it could signal systematic change to the climate, per the Post. (More La Nina stories.)