US Intelligence Saw Signs of Prigozhin's Plans

Yevgeniy Prigozhin has long complained about Moscow military leaders' decision-making on the war, but it wasn't until Ukraine began its counteroffensive that the Wagner Group chief launched his armed rebellion—at a time when dealing with two challenges at once could strain Russian resources. That wasn't a coincidence, the Atlantic reports: There are indications the operation had been planned for months. US intelligence saw those signs, officials said, and were able give White House officials and various agencies a heads-up that Prigozhin had something in the works, per the Washington Post. "So I think they were ready for it," one US official said.

The advance on Moscow, which Prigozhin called off Saturday, may have had the look of a spontaneous reaction by an angry mercenary, but it couldn't have been. Military supplies had to be built up and in place, including armored vehicles and air defense systems, to support the operation. Prigozhin's public rants about the generals seem, at least in hindsight, to have been performances. And Wagner's logistical network was prepared to make it possible for its columns to move hundreds of miles in a day. Russian forces struggling with Ukraine's counteroffensive, Phillips Payson O'Brien writes in the Atlantic, "must be looking on in envy."

Still, US officials didn't have much notice; the warnings came this month, with agencies wrestling with potential fallout from Prigozhin's action over the past two weeks. Pentagon, State Department, and congressional leaders were briefed, per the Post. The US debate include whether President Vladimir Putin would retain power and whether control of Russia's nuclear weapons would be affected. "There were lots of questions along those lines," a US official said. And though they thought Prigozhin was planning something, the officials didn't know when it would happen. American agencies suspect Putin knew, too. It's not clear when he was warned, but it was "definitely more than 24 hours ago," a US official said Saturday. (More Russia rebellion stories.)