Debt Deal: True Market Relief, or a 'Short-Lived Sugar High'?

An agreement has been reached, at least in principle, by President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on raising the nation's debt limit, and now the final OK is in Congress' hands. Both progressive Democrats and ultra-conservatives are already pushing back on the deal, and if Biden and McCarthy can't convince members of their own parties to vote for it by a June 5 deadline, a default looms. Negotiators are scrambling to finalize the bill's details, and the takes are starting to trickle in. Some thoughts on what this agreement could mean:

• View on proposed spending cuts: Economists tell the New York Times they don't think those "modest" cuts will seriously shake up a "well-positioned" economy that should be able to absorb them. "The most important impact is the stability that comes with having a deal," Ben Harris, a former deputy Treasury secretary, tells the paper. "Markets can function knowing that we don't have a cataclysmic debt ceiling crisis looming."

• A balanced deal, but...: The editorial board at the Washington Post notes that both the GOP and Dems got "some of what they wanted," and that "most Americans will probably approve" of the "sensible" basics of the deal. The panel argues, however, that the agreement sets a "dangerous precedent," as "House Republicans have now used the debt limit twice to create a hostage-like situation that brings the nation close to an unthinkable default." The board's recommendation: "The debt limit itself needs to be scrapped," as it "no longer makes any sense."
• "Wrinkles and curveballs": Politico outlines the details that make "even more clear what kinds of trade-offs [Biden] and McCarthy had to accept in ways that are already angering members of the parties' bases"—including a thumbs-up for an Appalachian gas pipeline promoted by Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin.
• Cautious optimism from investors: They note the debt deal could "boost overall appetite for risk" in the stock market, while also boosting some of the "unloved corners," including cyclical stocks, defense stocks, and energy stocks, per Reuters. "The hope is that the approval of this tentative deal will help underpin the broader market and not just the handful of big tech names that have kept the market well in positive territory," Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, says.

• Temporary relief? A second piece in Reuters takes the stance that any market relief that emerges out of the deal will only be a "short-lived sugar high." The outlet notes that's because once the agreement is struck, it's believed the US Treasury will rapidly issue nearly $1.1 trillion in Treasury bills—a move that would "effectively suck a bunch of liquidity out of the marketplace" and create "an environment where markets are crash prone," experts say.
• "Fiscal hangover": Investors.com similarly warns that "a fiscal hangover is just beginning," and that "we're about to get Fed quantitative tightening on steroids," with a possible stock market dip and recession around the corner.
• The art of compromise: Writing for CNN, Dean Obeidallah notes that making concessions is part of the game, and for fellow Democrats who don't like the agreement, he has some advice. "There is an easy fix: Win back control of the House in 2024—while retaining the Senate and White House—and they can roll back any parts of the deal they find objectionable," he writes.

(More debt ceiling stories.)