China on Monday reported its first deaths linked to COVID-19 since Dec. 4—and there could be many more to come, experts tell ABC News. The following day, five deaths reported in Beijing brought China's COVID death toll to 5,242, a number the AP says is "relatively low by global standards but potentially set to increase substantially." (It's also likely an undercount, experts say.) The expected increase is thanks to the government backing off on controversial "zero COVID" policies, including lockdowns and mandatory testing and quarantines, amid rare protests against the government and a struggling economy.
One public health expert says that due to vulnerable populations that aren't protected and low vaccination rates, "What will happen with the new policy right now is most of the population in China will be infected by COVID." Not enough people in the country are boosted, and the Sinovac vaccine China uses was found to be ineffective against the omicron variant. While elderly populations were previously protected by the "zero COVID" policies, that will no longer be the case. Vaccine-induced immunity is waning in those who have not received a booster shot, and coupled with low exposure amongst the population, experts are concerned by how many people have immune systems that are vulnerable to the virus.
Several mathematical models and analyses offer dire warnings for China, the Washington Post reports. One suggests the country could see nearly 323,000 COVID deaths by April, and multiple others say deaths in 2023 could be around a million—or even higher. The newspaper also notes that due to limited official information, "the severity of China’s coronavirus surge is being reported largely anecdotally, with stories of deserted streets, strained hospitals and funeral homes, and pharmacies being emptied." (More China stories.)
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