The Race to Control the House Comes Down to 5

5 seats that is; it's how many the GOP needs to pick up to gain control

By Newser Editors, Newser Staff

Posted Nov 8, 2022 3:21 PM CST

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The Race to Control the House Comes Down to 5 — The House of Representatives is seen on Election Day, at the Capitol in Washington, early Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. After months of primaries, campaign events and fundraising pleas, today's midterm elections will determine the balance of power in Congress. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

There are 435 voting representatives in the House, with the current split as follows: 220 Democrats, 212 Republicans, and 3 vacancies due to resignations and death. The GOP needs to gain a net of 5 seats to regain the majority. Going into Tuesday, most experts are saying that's the likeliest outcome, with some anticipating they'll end at "the upper end of expectations" with between 235 and 240 House seats.

Ballotopedia views 37 districts (8.5%) as being battleground races, and the vast majority of the toss-ups (28 seats) are currently held by Democrats. Seven are held by the GOP, and two seats are newly created as a result of the 2020 census. The Cook Political Report mirrors that: It views 35 seats as toss-ups, with 25 of them currently being in Democratic hands.
The American Presidency Project at UC Santa Barbara offers this: "In the 22 midterm elections from 1934 -2018, the President's party has averaged a loss of 28 House seats and ... gained seats in the House only three times."

(More 2022 midterms stories.)

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