IMF's Gloomy Warning: 'Worst Is Yet to Come'

Banker Jamie Dimon isn't the only one who thinks a recession is on the horizon. The International Monetary Fund issued its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, with a bleak takeaway line, per CNN:

• "In short, the worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession."

The IMF sees "stormy waters" ahead globally for reasons that will sound familiar, including rising inflation, the war in Ukraine, and China's economic slowdown, report the New York Times and CNBC. Specifically, the IMF predicts global growth will slow to 2.7% next year, down from 3.2% this year. The organization also sees a decent chance, somewhere around 25%, that growth will dip below 2%.

How bad things get will depend on how successfully policymakers around the world handle the difficult task of managing inflation while simultaneously trying not to suffocate growth, says the report. "The risks are accumulating," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas tells the Times. "We’re expecting about a third of the global economy to be in a technical recession," meaning two consecutive quarters of negative growth. To CNBC he adds: "Next year is going to feel painful. There's going to be a lot of slowdown and economic pain." (More recession stories.)