A food crisis was brewing well before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Now, a global food shortage seems inevitable, and it may persist. "There is no precedent even close to this since World War II," according to the World Food Program, per reporting in the New York Times. Many countries rely mostly if not entirely on Russian and Ukrainian grain and cooking oils. Those supplies are at risk due to sanctions and the difficulty of farming in a warzone. Over the past year—with the invasion adding to existing prewar problems—wheat prices are up 69%, barley 82%, and corn 36%. Furthermore, Russia is also the world's largest fertilizer exporter.
There were already severe problems in that market last year due to energy costs and chemical shortages. Worldwide crop yields will be diminished as a result. This could have a rippling effect; for example, low soybean yields in Brazil leaving Chinese pig and chicken farmers scrambling for feed. As the Times notes, natural disasters are also taking their toll: "China, facing its worst wheat crop in decades after severe flooding, is planning to buy much more of the world’s dwindling supply."
Human Rights Watch sounded the alarm for countries in the Middle East and North Africa, including Lebanon, where grain reserves have not recovered since the Beirut port explosion in 2020. In many countries, fragile government supplies and subsidy programs are primary barriers to social unrest. Business Insider recalls worldwide rioting sparked by "weather shocks and trade restrictions" in 2007–08 and again in 2010, which helped trigger the Arab Spring. Conditions are worse now. (More Russia-Ukraine war stories.)
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