We're back at gloomy levels, with Johns Hopkins University data showing more than 2,000 Americans are now dying of COVID-19 daily, reports CNN—and in its telling, health experts are fearful of what the combination of our current COVID situation and the start of flu season will bring. But NPR suggests what's coming may be ... not that bad. It reviewed an analysis prepared by researchers who are assisting the CDC, and it's hopeful.
The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub developed four possible scenarios for what's coming in the next six months using nine different mathematical models and a group of assumptions (like "kids do get vaccinated" or "no new variant emerges"). If both those conditions—yes to kids, no to a highly contagious new variant—hold, the model looks good, says the Hub's Justin Lesser: New infections would move in a steadily downward trajectory from about 140,000 a day to 9,000 a day by March, with daily deaths under the 100 mark. Under that scenario, the US would have suffered about 780,000 deaths.
One Harvard epidemiologist throws a little rain on the parade, saying that while he does suspect the pandemic will be "comparatively under control by March," he says it's possible we could see some surges before we get there, noting that coronaviruses "usually peak in early January." Meanwhile, ABC News reports that just three states accounted for about a third of the COVID deaths suffered in the past week: Texas, Alabama, and Georgia. (More coronavirus stories.)
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