India is now registering nearly 350,000 new COVID cases a day, a development that has "staggered scientists," reports Smriti Mallapty at Nature. “I was expecting fresh waves of infection, but I would not have dreamt that it would be this strong,” says Shahid Jameel, a virologist at Ashoka University. (His comments came a few days ago, and things have only gotten worse.) A look at what's happening:
- False hopes: The Nature article notes that one reason for the surprise is that studies in January suggested more than half the population in India's biggest cities had tested positive for antibodies, which in theory should have provided some immunity. Now there are fears that those antibody tests might not have been representative of the whole population.
- Bad samples: It's possible the first wave may have hit the urban poor particularly hard, which led to distorted data. "The virus may be getting into populations that were previously able to protect themselves,” says virologist Gagandeep Kang. People in wealthy communities may have been able to isolate during the first wave, and they began going out when officials began speculating the worst was over.
- Other factors: More infectious variants and relaxed restrictions on public gatherings also appear to be factors in the new surge.