Obama Up in Swing States, Making Red Inroads

Barack Obama holds a 2-point edge over John McCain in recently red Virginia, a poll margin Eric Kleefeld, on Talking Points Memo, sees allowing Obama to make “the map of competitive states really ... much broader than usual this year.” Blogger Nate at FiveThirtyEight.com reads in the numbers that Obama's lead is “an unusually robust one in terms of the Electoral College.”

New Quinnipiac polls put Obama up by 12 points in Pennsylvania, 6 in Ohio—and 4 in Florida, where he never before led either McCain or Hillary Clinton. Nate deems the Florida switch “a watershed moment”; if the Sunshine State is “in play,” he concludes, “then John McCain’s defense is completely broken.”