Dems Will Likely Retain Control of House, but...

Democrats currently hold a 232-197 advantage over Republicans in the House—with one Libertarian and five vacancies—and they are fighting to increase that majority by flipping GOP seats in the Sun Belt and elsewhere. The party flipped 41 seats in 2018 to regain control of the chamber. This time around, the GOP will have to flip at least 17 seats to gain a House majority, which pollsters consider highly unlikely, although there are at least a few vulnerable Democrats. Nonpartisan analysts expect the Democrats to pick up between three and 15 seats, reports the Washington Post. Main Democratic targets include suburban seats in red states, especially in the Sun Belt. Newser will follow the lead of the AP on calling races. As of 4am Eastern time, the AP noted that while Democrats are still on track to maintain control, they may face a shrinking majority: In initial returns, no Republicans had been ousted, and six Democratic incumbents had lost. Some key races to watch, per CNN:

• Nebraska's 2nd district. GOP Rep. Donald Bacon prevailed against Democrat challenger Kara Eastman.
• Texas' 23rd district. Open seat, Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones lost to Republican Tony Gonzales
• New Mexico's 2nd district. Democratic Rep. Xochitl Torres Small lost to Republican challenger Yvette Herrell.
• Arizona's 6th district. GOP Rep. David Schweikert vs. Democrat Hiral Tipirneni.
• New York's 24th district. GOP Rep. John Katko vs. Democrat Dana Balter.
• Georgia's 6th district. Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath prevailed against Republican challenger Karen Handel.

Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican who expressed support for QAnon, won an open seat in Georgia's 14th district. In New York City's 14th district. In New York, Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez won one of the most expensive House races. (In fact, all four members of "the squad" won re-election "handily," per the Guardian.) Republicans flipped two Miami-area House seats, with Maria Elvira Salazar defeating Rep. Donna Shalala in Florida's 27th district and Republican Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez defeating Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in the 26th. See NPR's live updates here. (More Election 2020 stories.)