It's possible we may not know the results of the presidential race for weeks after Nov. 3 ... or this very moment, if you want to believe Allan Lichtman's prediction. And you'd have good reason to. The New York Times calls him "the Nostradamus of presidential elections"—he's called them correctly for four decades—and in a video op-ed for the paper, he explains why Joe Biden is going to take it. Lichtman took 120 years of US elections, from 1860 to 1980, and, along with a Russian earthquake expert, developed what he has dubbed “The Keys to the White House.” He explains: “We recast American presidential elections as stability, the party holding the White House keeps the White House. And earthquake, the White House party is turned out of power.”
The way his 13 keys work is that each one is answered true or false. "True" indicates the White House party will retain power. Six or more false answers equal a political earthquake. Some of the keys are pretty basic political factors: Key No. 2, for instance: "There is no primary contest for the White House party." True. Others are economic, like Key No. 6: "Long-term economic growth during this presidential term has been as good as the past two terms." False. Others are societal, like No. 8: "There is no social unrest during the term." False. Others are geopolitical, as with No. 10: "The White House has no major foreign or military failures abroad." True "so far," per Lichtman. And then there's the nature of the candidates. No. 13: "The challenger is uncharismatic." True, says Lichtman of Biden. His tally? Seven falses, meaning Biden has it—at least, according to the Keys. (More Election 2020 stories.)
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