The Iowa caucuses are here, and Nate Silver, who wasn't expecting Donald Trump to still be leading the GOP field at this stage, still thinks he could be knocked off his perch. At FiveThirtyEight.com, the predictions whiz outlines four possible results in Iowa—and four ways the media is likely to spin them.
- Marco Rubio as the GOP's Savior. If Trump beats Ted Cruz and Rubio does well, expect the GOP elites to rally behind Rubio, Silver predicts, adding that in what was "possibly an idiotic strategy," the GOP establishment may have had this outcome in mind when it launched recent attacks on Cruz.