Not Much Post-Convention Bounce for Mitt

Poll changes mostly just 'noise,' says Nate Silver

By Mark Russell, Newser Staff

Posted Sep 2, 2012 6:03 AM CDT

Copied

Not Much Post-Convention Bounce for Mitt — FILE - In this May 8, 2012 file photo, Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney speaks in Lansing, Mich. Obama's popularity among women, minorities and independents is giving him an early edge over his likely GOP rival, Mitt Romney, according to a new AP-GfK poll. But... (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio, File)

Just days after the end of the Republican National Convention, it looks like Mitt Romney's "bounce" is pretty modest, writes Nate Silver for the New York Times. Rasmussen's poll produced the best result, giving Romney a five-point swing and a three-percentage-point lead now. Ipsos now has Romney one point behind President Obama, for a three-point gain. And Gallup still has Obama one point in the lead, although, as Gallup uses a seven-day window, its poll is only halfway through the convention.

Add up all the results, preliminary though they may be, and Silver is giving Obama a 73.1% chance at winning the election in November, just off his highest rating of the year, 73.6% on Aug. 16. "But whatever assumptions you make about a convention bounce, it introduces more noise into the polling," says Silver, noting that next week "the pressure will then be on Mr. Obama." (More Nate Silver stories.)

Report an error